8 AUGUST 2024By Daniel Kebriti, Head of Manufacturing Operations Australasia, Lush CosmeticsAs the fourth industrial revolution reshapes the future of manufacturing, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and the Internet of Things (IoT) have transformed Demand Forecasting as the foundation of any agile and successful manufacturing operations. Demand forecasting is no longer a periodic exercise of analyzing historical data sets, identifying trends, and devising time-series modeling to make predictions about future demands. Machine learning and AI have revolutionized traditional forecasting methods and systems to enable the analysis of vast amounts of real-time data, including sales history, customer behaviors, economic indicators, geopolitical shifts, and even social media trends, to generate forecasts with greater speed, accuracy and reliability. This one-time operational tool has been transformed into a powerful strategic compass that influences everything from production strategies, resource allocation and supply chain optimization to enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty.Prior to COVID-19, supply chains had been relatively stable for 30 years, leading to the misconception that what happened yesterday was a good enough indicator of what may happen tomorrow. The pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities across end-to-end supply chains and caused shock waves across all industries. Whilst organizations are swiftly reinventing the wheel by adopting cutting-edge technologies in the wake of future volatilities, many are falling short of expected results in their digital investment. The root cause is that technology is only one component of a far more holistic effort to unleash the power of demand forecasting. `The roadmap to redefining the art of demand forecasting requires integration of People, Process, and Data Quality alongside a pragmatic Technology solution.'`People are at the core of championing progression.'To begin any reform, organizations must embrace an `appetite for change.' Leaders need to foster a culture comfortable with uncertainty, engage and gain buy-in from all stakeholders, and empower their teams in transforming past Demand Forecasting practices. Secondly, enrolling the right talent, and pledging the commitment to upskilling, to execute process change and leverage technologies implemented. REDEFINING THE ART OF DEMAND FORECASTING BEYOND TECHNOLOGYOPINIONDaniel Kebriti
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